BayesBrief

BayesBrief is a web app (with optional mobile companion) that helps teams make better decisions when outcomes are uncertain. Users define a decision, list options, and enter assumptions as probability ranges (not fake precision). The app guides them through lightweight Bayesian updates as new evidence arrives (sales calls, experiments, incident data), then outputs expected value, downside risk, and “what would change my mind” thresholds. It also includes a decision journal so teams can review past calls, compare predicted vs actual outcomes, and learn calibration over time. This is not a magic oracle: it won’t replace domain expertise, and it won’t fix bad inputs. But it will force clarity, expose hidden assumptions, and reduce overconfidence. Best fit is recurring decisions (pricing, hiring, roadmap bets, vendor selection) where evidence trickles in and teams need a consistent method.