RiskLedger

RiskLedger is a web app (with a lightweight mobile companion) for teams making decisions when outcomes are uncertain and data is incomplete. It forces users to write down assumptions, assign probability ranges, define decision options, and track what evidence would change their mind. It then runs simple Monte Carlo simulations and expected value comparisons, but keeps the math in the background so non-quants can use it. The core value is the decision journal: every decision gets a timestamped record of inputs, confidence, and rationale, plus follow-up reminders to score outcomes later. Over time, the app shows calibration metrics (were you overconfident?) and highlights which assumptions drove wins or losses. This is not a magic “AI decides for you” tool; it’s a structured workflow that reduces hindsight bias and improves repeatability.