ScenarioSift

ScenarioSift is a web app (with optional mobile companion) that helps teams and solo operators make high-stakes decisions when probabilities are unclear or disputed. Instead of pretending you know exact odds, it guides you to define a few plausible scenarios, assign rough ranges (not fake precision), and quantify what matters: downside exposure, break-even points, and “what would change my mind” thresholds. Users enter options, costs, time horizons, and key uncertainties; the app runs sensitivity analysis and produces a one-page decision memo with assumptions, scenario outcomes, and recommended next experiments to reduce uncertainty. It also tracks decisions over time, capturing what you believed then versus what happened, so you can calibrate judgment without turning it into a guilt trip. This is not a forecasting toy; it’s a practical decision workflow for messy real-world calls.