TailRiskKit

TailRiskKit is a web app (with optional desktop export tools) that helps teams pressure-test plans against black swan scenarios without pretending to “predict” them. Users define a decision (launch, hiring plan, leverage, vendor choice), then the app generates a structured set of extreme-but-plausible shocks (regulatory ban, liquidity freeze, key supplier collapse, cyber event, sudden demand cliff) and forces explicit assumptions, triggers, and contingency actions. It outputs a one-page “pre-mortem” plus an action checklist: hedges, kill-switch metrics, cash runway thresholds, vendor redundancies, and comms templates. It also includes a lightweight incident drill mode to rehearse response steps quarterly. This is an AI + traditional app: AI proposes scenario libraries and drafts playbooks; deterministic templates and scoring keep it grounded. The goal is not forecasting—it’s reducing fragility and shortening time-to-response when reality breaks your model.